Jason Stanley
Risk and opportunity in a dislocating world

Latest

Jun
25
Inflation, household debt, and cross-border risks threaten housing

Inflation, household debt, and cross-border risks threaten housing

Housing sectors globally face growing threats as economic downturn looms yet inflation shows few signs of subsiding. Canada's market faces particularly high risk given household debt burden. Currency, geopolitical and regulatory risks complicate foreign investment in China's real estate sector.
15 min read
Jun
17
Crisis and disruption in natural gas, food prices, and migration: What impact on US housing?

Crisis and disruption in natural gas, food prices, and migration: What impact on US housing?

This week's analysis looks at the impacts of the rapidly converging natural gas markets in the US and Europe and how the diverging fortunes of the US and Mexican economies could give rise to a renewed surge of northward migration.
14 min read
Jun
10
Will quantitative tightening spur mortgage rate hikes? The erosion of duration risk muddies the water

Will quantitative tightening spur mortgage rate hikes? The erosion of duration risk muddies the water

Fed actions simultaneously reduce mortgage duration risk and spill MBS into the market. In the medium-term, QT looks set to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
6 min read
Jun
03
Missing homes, gas-friendly migration, and the rise of car dependency

Missing homes, gas-friendly migration, and the rise of car dependency

This week's analysis covers the housing supply chasm, the muted impact of rising gasoline prices on driving, and one gap in the SEC's recent climate disclosure proposal.
14 min read
May
27
Housing, consumption, and climate

Housing, consumption, and climate

This week's analysis covers home price trends, the possible impact of rising rates, consumer confidence, climate risks, and more.
10 min read
May
23
Housing market uncertainty as household formation grows and population growth declines

Housing market uncertainty as household formation grows and population growth declines

Research shows household formation trends are changing, leading to an increase in the headship rate. But the larger setting of declining population growth runs in the opposite direction, leading to unclear impact on housing demand in the medium term.
4 min read
May
22
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