Inflation, household debt, and cross-border risks threaten housing
Housing sectors globally face growing threats as economic downturn looms yet inflation shows few signs of subsiding. Canada's market faces particularly high risk given household debt burden. Currency, geopolitical and regulatory risks complicate foreign investment in China's real estate sector.
Crisis and disruption in natural gas, food prices, and migration: What impact on US housing?
This week's analysis looks at the impacts of the rapidly converging natural gas markets in the US and Europe and how the diverging fortunes of the US and Mexican economies could give rise to a renewed surge of northward migration.
Will quantitative tightening spur mortgage rate hikes? The erosion of duration risk muddies the water
Fed actions simultaneously reduce mortgage duration risk and spill MBS into the market. In the medium-term, QT looks set to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Missing homes, gas-friendly migration, and the rise of car dependency
This week's analysis covers the housing supply chasm, the muted impact of rising gasoline prices on driving, and one gap in the SEC's recent climate disclosure proposal.
Housing, consumption, and climate
This week's analysis covers home price trends, the possible impact of rising rates, consumer confidence, climate risks, and more.
Housing market uncertainty as household formation grows and population growth declines
Research shows household formation trends are changing, leading to an increase in the headship rate. But the larger setting of declining population growth runs in the opposite direction, leading to unclear impact on housing demand in the medium term.
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